Writer: Miao Ren Feng
Kwong Wah, Oct 15, 2014
Even though the last general election was not even two years ago, both the ruling and opposition parties are already showing impatience in gearing up for the next polls. In the 2013 general elections, Barisan won 133 parliamentary seats and 275 state seats. Pakatan also did well winning 89 parliamentary seats and 229 state seats.
While Barisan succeeded in blocking Pakatan’s march to Putrajaya, it lost its two-thirds absolute majority in parliament, resulting in frequent heated debates in parliament. Many a time, when an MP makes his grand speech, he refuses to be interrupted and refuses to give way to others who want to express their views. The result is a near chaotic situation and a serious headache to the Speaker!
According to Barisan sources, they have strong confidence in winning back some of the lost seats. Even MCA, Gerakan and SUPP in Sarawak which have been heavily thrashed in the last elections feel that conditions are favourable to them now with the many beneficial measures taken by the Barisan Government and good feedback to the 2015 Budget. There are further indications that the 2016 Budget will focus on relieving people’s burden.
Thus, if Pakatan remained weak, Barisan’s chances of winning will be high.
As Barisan is full of confidence to face the next general elections, what about the three partners of Pakatan? The year 2014 has been chaotic for Pakatan. First, it lost the Teluk Anson parliamentary by-election which had been won with strenuous effort to Gerakan President Mah Siew Keong. The seat was handed back to Mah and enabled him to rejoin the Cabinet. This will enable Gerakan to fight Pakatan in the parliamentary and state contests.
Secondly, the replacement of the Selangor Mentri Besar had created a row and led to power struggle among the three partners. Originally, it was an internal affair of Keadilan. Keadilan de facto leader Anwar wanted Dr Wan Azizah to replace Khalid but his plan was derailed by a more ambitious Pas. Eventually, the post was given back to Keadilan but the replacement was Azmin who is not a Keadilan-endorsed candidate. This was a slap on the face for Anwar.
The row over the replacement of the Mentri Besar had shown the rift between Pas and its two other partners, DAP and Keadilan. It also indicated Pas President Hadi Awang and syura leader Nik Aziz’s desire to break away from Anwar’s influence and even want to leave Pakatan and go its own way.
Sources said if Pas left Pakatan, it wouldn’t be able to retain the 21 parliamentary seats and 85 state seats which it won in the 2013 polls. If Chinese voters stopped voting for Pas, the party would face defeats in Perak, Selangor and some constituencies in southern peninsula.
They also said that even if Pas left Pakatan, DAP, with the support of Keadilan, could still hold on to most of the 38 parliamentary seats and 95 state seats won in the 2013 polls. They felt that there might be setbacks for DAP, but the damage would be minor as the party could still command Chinese support.
While the next polls are still far away, both the ruling and opposition parties have been moving into high gear in preparation. Barisan is upbeat because of the crack in Pakatan. Barisan, especially Umno, wants to ride on the momentum and repeatedly offered the hand of friendship to Pas. Obviously, it wants to break up Pakatan.
Even if Pas showed no signs of warming up to Umno, Umno does not want traditional Pas supporters in the kampong to vote for DAP and Keadilan. As long as Pas insists that its grass-root supporters would not give their votes to Pakatan, Barisan is sure of winning back the two-thirds absolute majority in parliament.
The biggest obstacle for Barisan is that some of its leaders and pro-Barisan bumiputra NGOs have been making all sorts of extremist remarks. Some of the pro-Umno NGOs have gate-crashed or used violence against some Pakatan events or events organized by civil organizations in total disregard of the law. This has angered the Chinese community.
Gerakan Vice President Dr Dominic Lau said if some Barisan leaders or pro-Barisan NGO leaders continued to repeat those extremist views to upset the Chinese, Barisan may lose control of the central government.
As a matter of fact, some Umno leaders and those of pro-Umno NGOs have in recent years touched on the status of Chinese primary schools, as well as race and religion issues and their expressed views have made the Chinese community very apprehensive.
If Barisan top leaders failed to stop these politicians and opportunists from this kind of extremist talks, the Chinese community will hold the view that since Barisan cannot stop it and since DAP and Keadilan in Pakatan seldom indulge in this kind of fanatic talk, they may as well continue to give their support to Pakatan.
If in the forthcoming general elections, strife occurs among members because of unfair distribution of seats, or if deviation occurs in the implementation of policy and goes against the 1Malaysia principle, and if the top leaders still close their eyes, ignoring all public complaints, Barisan may really lose its control of the central government as forewarned by Dr Lau.
There is no eternal winner in politics although Barisan has been in power since independence. Barisan has the full control of all political resources. But it does not mean that Barisan will be the winner forever. Even the best national budget will not be sufficient as a panacea. If our administration is not transparent, not fair and it only benefits cronies to enrich themselves, public discontent will become uncontrollable and eventually, a development plan aimed at bringing benefit to the people may turn out to be the main cause of losing the government.
Original Source: Uncategorized