By: Ow Chong Ming (translated name)
Kwong Wah Yit Poh, 05-06-2014

Teluk Intan by-election had come to an end, DAP’s newcomer Dyana was defeated by Gerakan chief Mah Siew Keong by a majority of 238 votes. Some netizens said that the process and result of vote counting was like witnessing the thrilling Thomas Cup championship, so close yet so far.

In the two by-elections recently, Bukit Gelugor and Teluk Intan parliamentary constituencies are two completely different types of constituents, the former is an urban constituency comprises 70% Chinese voters, while the latter is a semi-urban constituency with mixed voters which Chinese and Malay voters each accounted for 40%. Although the turnout of both by-elections was low, in which Bukit Gelugor recorded 53% turnout of voters (lowest of the 5 by-elections), while Teluk Intan recorded 66% turnout (second lowest of the 5 by-elections), the results of the two by-elections were obviously different.

Bukit Gelugor parliamentary seat is set in an urban constituent, DAP’s newbie who is also the late Karpal Singh’s son Ramkarpal won 89% of votes and defeated the three other candidates easily who did not manage to keep their deposit (it is thus understandable why Barisan Nasional decided to not contest in order to save face). This shows that after the general election last year, urban voters’ stance in supporting Pakatan Rakyat has not changed.

Teluk Intan parliament constituency is a semi-urban area. For Pakatan, the support of outstation voters (who are also the urban voters) is very important. It is reasonable to say that the outstation voters determine the result. Before the by-election, some prediction on the internet forecasted Barisan would win if the turnout was 60% or Pakatan would win if the turnout was 70%. The forecast was based on the 70% turnout in the general election of 2008 in which Pakatan won with a majority of 1,470 votes. 66% of turnout would be a close combat and the result of winning with a small majority is therefore predictable.

Barisan won Teluk Intan parliamentary seat with a majority of 238 votes. According to the support rating based on racial composition, Chinese votes were up by 15%, Indian votes were up by 10%, but Malay votes were lowered by 3%. Certain comments stated that based on the rising support of Chinese voters, it can be concluded that Chinese votes have returned to Barisan, Chinese voters do not support Malay candidate, Chinese voters chose to vote for local development, Chinese voters do not value national issues, Chinese voters no longer “vote for the party instead of the candidate”, low turnout of outstation voters show voters no longer support Pakatan or Chinese voters are trying to teach DAP a lesson. Those who are smart could tell that all these claims were biased or inclined. To put it nicely, those were too subjective and optimistic. To put it bluntly, those were one-sided opinion or oblique accusations.

To be honest, the victory in Teluk Intan is certainly not a major reversal for Barisan (the think tank knows this clearly). As for UMNO, Dyana wave and the loss of 28% Malay votes have actually highlighted the limitations and fear in the racial based political party.

Peaceful social revolution

Before Teluk Intan by-election, Dyana wave shook the Malay society and shocked UMNO. With the announcement of Teluk Intan by-election result, the loss of 28% Malay votes had made UMNO uncomfortable.

Dyana should not have been the candidate of DAP. Her family has intricate relationship with UMNO, she is a young and pretty Malay elite, if she chose to embark on political career, and she should have been a member of UMNO Women’s youth who would naturally defend the interest of Malay group. However, she had chosen an alternative path and joined DAP which is center-left and disregards racial background.

Objectively speaking, Dyana’s political choice is related to the social environment. The Malay society is changing, the urban Malay population is rising, the Malay villages are urbanised at higher pace, women received high level of education (female Malay students have accounted to over 70% in universities), and the number of Malay female working in service industry is rising. All these changes are a silent social reformation. UMNO is no longer able to control the Malay society.

Teluk Intan is a semi-urban constituent. The semi-urban and rural Malay votes are usually secured in UMNO’s hand (the situation has changed slightly in last general election), in this by-election, the loss of Malay votes had climbed from 3% to 28%, which is almost 30%, and the outstation voters were most likely not included. Were the 3% of votes (approximately 1,200 votes) casted by young Malays or female in the urban area? If yes, then it is alarming to UMNO.

Dyana is not the only shining star of DAP. In the past two general elections, Liew Chin Tong, Tony Pua, Teo Nie Ching, Nga Koh Ming, Ong Kian Ming, Yeo Bee Yin, Zairil and many other newcomers have emerged, it is clear that the party is progressing with the times and attempting to launch electoral strategy that changes the political ecology and rules of game. On the contrary, today’s UMNO could only call out the “1Malaysia” slogan in weak voices and does not to mention any other significant change.

Original Source: 巫统隐忧：黛安娜与28%马来选票