Fence sitters determine the outcome of Kuala Kangsar by-election

Sin Chew Daily, 6 June, 2016

To both political divide, the Kuala Kangsar by-election is a tough battle. Both Umno and PAS have equal share of Malay supporters. No one can easily conclude who the winner is. One thing for sure, fence sitters would play key role in last moment of voting.

PAS may not be having too much hope on Chinese voters at this moment. Initially PAS has planned to garner at least 10% of Chinese votes (about 800 votes) from its candidate Dr Najihatussalehah Ahmad. Judging from the lukewarm response of Chinese voters when PAS visits Chinese areas, Chinese voters are unlikely to vote for PAS in this by-election.

PAS currently has placed its entire hope on Malay voters. Malay votes constitute about 70% in Kuala Kangsar parliamentary seats. As long as PAS can secure about 60% of Malay votes and hope that Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) candidate to bag 70% of Chinese votes then it stands a chance to win the royal town for the first time.

Hard for Barisan Nasional to win Chinese votes

Under the scenario of not voting for PAS, Barisan Nasional sees some hope on Chinese votes. However, it does not seem to be easy for the return of Chinese votes to Barisan Nasional due to hudud law issue. DAP Secretary-General cum Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng personally takes charge on nomination day of the by-election. DAP for sure will be campaigning for candidate of Amanah. Barisan Nasional is facing an uphill task to win back Chinese votes. It will be easier said than done for MCA to win more than half of Chinese votes.

MCA will be going all out in this by-election on Chinese votes. Perak MCA chairman Dr Mah Hang Soon has vowed to secure more Chinese votes. Currently MCA is working hard on ensuring MCA members, family and relatives of MCA members to support Barisan Nasional. As MCA is going all out, winning more Chinese votes than the last General Elections would not be a daunting task for MCA. But it would not be easy for MCA to win more than half of Chinese votes.

Under “massive attack” launched by DAP, the number of Chinese votes that Amanah would receive may not be too far from the 75% of Chinese votes which went to PAS in last general elections. The general belief is that Amanah may be able to secure half of Chinese votes. Where would Chinese votes go? This would depend on changes taking place during campaigning period.

Hudud law issue a double-edge sword

The hudud law issue is a double-edge sword. It is capable of hurting others as well as oneself. Going too far may see one playing with fire and burned by the fire. Chinese voters are not only sensitive towards hudud law but also hope to receive fair treatment in politics, economics, culture and education. Chinese is also placing emphasis on corruptions and abuse of power.

While the 24% of Chinese votes in the area is lucrative to both Umno and PAS, the votes are not going to be secured easily. To Umno, winning more Chinese votes compared to last General Election is good enough. PAS does not even harbour high hope on Chinese votes.

Umno has to win Kuala Kangsar parliamentary seat. Hudud law is an important strategy. PAS sees the issue as its cannon. After parting ways with Pakatan Harapan, PAS is aware that it will no longer receive Chinese votes. It has also given up on Chinese votes by focusing on Malay votes, hoping to win over Malay support on its clear Islamic image.