Co-operation is the only way out for opposition parties

Oriental Daily, June 20, 2016

UMNO has won, Barisan Nasional has won and Najib is happy. PAS was deflated, Pakatan Harapan was defeated and Tun Mahathir has aged. The Rocket has fumbled, the Chinese have retreated and people are confused. These are the messages shared among my friends after the results of the two by-elections were announced.

The Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections on June 18 produced two new MPs but they also gave pointers to the 14th general election for both the ruling and opposition parties to ponder over.

There are two key issues which deserve our close attention. They are the voting trend of rural and semi-rural areas as well as the 5% difference which spells the success or otherwise of BN in marginal areas. These may decide which party would form the state government in the next election.

In rural and semi-rural areas, UMNO under Najib seems to have walked out of the shadows of controversial issues. 1MDB and the RM2.6 billion deposit failed to topple Najib and UMNO, while infrastructure development remained their trump card. Mahathir’s influence is diminishing, the Citizens’ Declaration with a million signatures has not been transformed into votes even though it might have caused some confusion in Malay rural areas and disturbed UMNO’s morale.

PAN had a hard landing in rural areas. Its strength and image are not any better than PAS. It only managed to split out some PAS votes but failed to affect UMNO. The two by-elections are important exercise ground for PAN to test its organizational and mobilization capabilities.

Whether it is about the 308 or 505 electoral tsunami, the high tides are receding. UMNO/BN has recovered from its low while Pakatan Harapan has fallen into a trough. The election results indicate that voters in semi-rural areas, especially the Malays, are concerned and attracted by development projects, local issues and sentiments. They are not swayed by scandals like 1MDB.

UMNO has secured better results in the two by-elections than in the 505 general election. The combined votes secured by PAS and PAN are less than UMNO votes. It means the opposition parties are incapable of defeating UMNO in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar even if they are united, what more when they have split!

It is not surprising that Chinese votes have returned to BN. The difference is the percentage and the choice of young voters. In the Teluk Intan by election in 2014, DAP lost by 238 votes while in the Sarawak state election, DAP lost five seats. Chinese support of opposition seems to have ebbed.

Pakatan Harapan has missed its best opportunity for a breakthrough when its popularity peaked. If they still take Chinese support for granted, they will continue to falter and weaken. In the past two elections, the opposition camp has been fighting against BN on a one-to-one basis which has caused BN lots of uneasiness. There was even the risk of it losing its ruling power. However, a split opposition camp would never be able to even shake BN.

Whether you like it or not, Pakatan Harapan must sit down and talk with PAS before the next election and reach a consensus on the distribution of seats in order to avoid any three-cornered fights. Otherwise, they would surrender not only those semi-urban constituencies which they have hopes of winning to BN, they would even lose those marginal seats.

It can be expected that such negotiation would be highly difficult especially when PAS under Hadi has now adopted a tough line. At the same time, some DAP leaders are equally arrogant.

The face-off between PAS and PAN would only make the negotiation tougher. The reality is that PAN cannot replace PAS while PAS also cannot do it alone. If there is no consensus on the seat distribution, the opposition camp would never be able to achieve its goal of providing an alternate government.

However, the negotiation may involve matters of principle. And thus, if negotiation was held and a compromise was achieved, would it be regarded as discarding of one’s principle? Even worse, will it lead to further splitting of Pakatan Harapan? PKR Youth public chief has made a proposal for the merging of the three Pakatan Harapan parties. It is quite a meaningful proposal.

The opposition parties must resolve their differences and synchronize their steps to think of a way in the coming two years to face the general election. Otherwise, they can forget about their ambition of a government change. For sure, BN will stick to its modus operandi. It will use the scatter and destroy tactic, to make them suspicious of each other so that they would never be able to group together as a united force.