Opposition parties may collapse

Sin Chew, May 17, 2016

It looks like both PAS and Amanah have very good reasons to contest in the Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar by-elections. If three-cornered fights emerged, Barisan would sure to win. Opposition parties will then suffer a major setback and risk a possible collapse in the upcoming general election.

PAS has vowed that it would not back off. After its face-off with DAP and the birth of splinter party Amanah, many people take a poor view of the party and think that eventually, it would retreat to Kelantan or the East Coast and would not have much impact.

With its total defeat in the Sarawak state election PAS has to prove, vie the two by-elections, that it is still a force to be reckoned with and still has strong appeal in Malay constituencies. It also has to calm its grassroots and supporters via the two by-elections that it is only getting closer to UMNO but has no intention to forge an alliance with its arch enemy. Furthermore, Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar are its traditional constituencies. It would be difficult for PAS to explain to its grassroots if it gives them up to Amanah which is part of Pakatan Harapan.

Amanah on the other hand is a new party and has to show to the outside world via the by-elections that it is not a useless party otherwise it will perish in the next election.

The 222 parliamentary constituencies in the country have been shared out by DAP, PKR and PAS. If Amanah does not fight, it will not have any constituency to contest. Since Amanah is a split from PAS, it can only take PAS constituencies.

The most ideal situation would be for PAS and Amanah to take either Kuala Kangsar or Sungai Besar. Because PAS commands substantial support in Perak and there are only 7,869 Chinese voters or 23.62 % in Kuala Kangsar, it may stand a better chance to win.

On the other hand, Pakatan Harapan rules Selangor, and Sungai Besar is within its domain. Besides, Sekinchan, which is under Sungai Besar, is DAP’s stronghold. State assemblyman Ng Suee Lim has done a good job and has a firm grasp on Chinese voters.

However, PAS leaders hate Amanah to the extreme and if Amanah contested and won Sungai Besar, it would strengthen Amanah and this would affect PAS’ interest in the general election. People are selfish and it is difficult for them to make self-sacrifices.

Opposition leaders all know that the Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar by-elections are very important to Prime Minister Najib. It could be regarded as a “referendum” on the support of Najib after the RM2.6 billion political donation and 1MDB issues. These two are UMNO traditional constituencies and if the party loses, dissident voices within the party are expected to rise and cracks surface in the open.

However, as they say even a rotten boat will still have some nails left, UMNO has its fundamental support in Malay areas and if PAS and Amanah failed to compromise, Najib could still sail through easily with the votes from party members and traditional supporters.

Barisan has scored a resounding victory in Sarawak, if they also won the two by-elections in west Malaysia, it would be a boost to UMNO’s current poor sentiment. By that time, Pakatan Harapan and PAS will find it difficult to stop UMNO from continuing its ruling power.

The right to contest in the two by-elections may also cause a split in Pakatan Harapan. This is because PKR Deputy President Azmin’s faction is of the view that they can’t do without Malay votes and they insist on cooperating with PAS. As the “mediator” between Pakatan Harapan and PAS, has Azmin been veering more towards PAS? If PAS refused to budge, would he deal with the issue in a fair manner? If PKR is involved too deeply in the issue it may also damage its relationship with Amanah.

At the same time, Azmin’s faction are also not in tune with DAP. PKR state assemblyman abstained in voting in the Penang state assembly on the motion of land reclamations. Azmin also approved PKR candidates to contest in five overlapping constituencies in Sarawak.

PKR liaison committee reveals in its Facebook that PKR President Wan Azizah read out in a meeting of the party’s political bureau a letter written by PKR advisor Anwar in jail to all party leaders and members. Anwar expressed his concern that party leaders have been overly involved with former Prime Minister Tun Mahathir who launched the Citizen’s Declaration Campaign. All these have shown the crack in PKR is expanding.

The opposition camp has problems within their own parties and among their partners. They are glued together by a common objective. But if the conflicts over the by-elections exploded, it would crumble and Barisan would be back to the good old days of being the single dominant party.

As a matter of fact, reformation is long term and the overall objective should not be jeopardized because of short-term self-interest. Opposition parties should hold on to their main objective of defeating Barisan. A little patience will gain more room for maneuvering. There is no need to be stubborn or to be in a hurry to seize power of the central government. Let go and be humble and play the role of check and balance well may lead to a smoother and easier way to success.