Chinese will be king maker if one-to-one contest in Sungai Besar by-election

Oriental Daily News, May 17, 2016

Klang, May 16 – The Sungai Besar parliamentary constituency by-election most likely will see multi-cornered tussle, if PAS and Pakatan Harapan fight against each other, Barisan Nasional will be benefitted. However, if there is one-to-one contest, the 30% Chinese voters will be the king maker in the by-election.

In the last general election, the late Member of Parliament for Sungai Besar Datuk Noriah received 18,695 votes, winning the seat with 399 majority votes over PAS candidate Mohamed Salleh who garnered 18,296 votes; the number of spoilt votes was 690, which was even more than the majority votes.

It is understood that if it is one-to-one contest in the by-election, the chance for the Opposition to win is quite high as most of the 30% Chinese voters are inclining to vote for Opposition, and if the Opposition is able to garner 40% of the Malay votes which constitute 67% of the total number of voters, it is not a problem to win the by-election.

PAS has mentioned that it will contest the Sungai Besar by-election, while Pakatan Harapan will also be fielding its candidate, thus it is most likely that there will be three-cornered fight among Pakatan Harapan, PAS and BN. If independent candidate also get into the fray, the multi-cornered tussle not only will be unfavourable to the Opposition, it can even be a big crisis as the votes will be split and the chance of winning will be waned.

According to analysis, it is impossible for PAS to give up the chance to contest in the by-election while Parti Amanah Negara from Pakatan Harapan is ready to join in the battle. If Pakatan Harapan and PAS is unable to reach an accord, and both sides insist on to field its own candidate, then what had happened in the Sarawak state election will repeat in the Sungai Besar by-election, and at the end Umno will emerge as the winner without any doubt.

One source which is familiar with the Selangor politics said if the Opposition opt for multi-cornered fight, then the 40% Malay votes which the Opposition is going to receive will be split between PAS and Pakatan Harapan, although PAS will garner more Malay votes, on the other hand it will lose Chinese votes, whereas Pakatan Harapan’s candidate will only be getting few Malay votes albeit the strong support from 70% of the Chinese voters.

Umno likes to see multi-cornered tussle

He said in the case of Umno, the votes it is going to receive will be very focus, even though Chinese voters may incline in supporting Opposition, it may receive 60% of the Malay votes, coupled with the basic Chinese votes for BN, it is absolutely possible for the party to retain the seat if the votes for Oppositions are split.

“This has been proven in the just-concluded Sarawak state election, DAP and PKR candidates had been confronting with each other in six constituencies, resulting in both parties flopping in all these areas.”

He said in view of this, Umno will be pleased to see multi-cornered tussle especially with both Pakatan Harapan and PAS fielding their own candidate, a repetition of Sarawak state election which saw BN gaining almost complete victory.

The source said if PAS and Pakatan Harapan set aside their differences, Pakatan Harapan is not going to take part in the by-election or PAS give out its opportunity to contest and to reach an accord to send only one candidate from the Oppositions to contest, then the Chinese voters will play the role of king maker in the by-election for the opposition.

He said in the one-to-one contest, Chinese votes will become the decisive factor, although Umno will receive 60% Malay votes, it will be very difficult to garner the Chinese votes, whereas the Opposition apart from receiving stable votes from Malay voters, will also be getting 70 to 80 percent Chinese votes, in which case the Opposition may receive more votes than Umno.