Sarawak Associate Professor: Barisan Nasional has problems winning back urban seats, internal rift between SUPP and UPP

 

Sin Chew Daily, 5 Apr 2016

(Kuala Lumpur 4 Apr) School of Social Science Associate professor Dr Jeniri Amir of University Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) says the current state election is a battle between Barisan Nasional, DAP and PKR. Barisan Nasional has difficulty to win back urban seats due to the internal rift between Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) and United People’s Party (UPP).

As the opposition parties are not united, he predicts that the performance of opposition parties would not be as good as the 2011 state election.

Chinese attracted by DAP’s publicity

He says Unimas has conducted three surveys on Chinese voters. The Chinese voters in cities are still deeply attracted by DAP’s publicity. As long as SUPP and UPP are still locked in internal feud, urban voters would still be supporting DAP, enhancing opposition party’s role to check and balance in state assembly.

“Chinese voters want to see good governance in Sarawak. The Chinese know that under 33-year rule by an ex-Chief Minister has made Barisan Nasional too strong and not good for the people in the state.”

At forum on Sarawak election jointly organised by National Professor’s Council and International Islamic University (IIU) today, Dr Jeniri said the internal feud among Barisan Nasional candidates have caused Chinese community to feel uneasy. It is not that the Chinese is not willing to vote for Barisan Nasional.

“SUPP and UPP are unable to resolve their disputes for the past three years. This would definitely create split on polling day. By then DAP benefits as the two parties are sabotaging each other.”

He also says DAP has reached its peak in its political performance in urban seats. That is why they launch “Sarawak dream” to seek support from voters in rural areas. Such publicity does not bring any actual benefits to the people as they are only political gimmicks.

Rural folks are more concerned with livelihood

“Of the 82 seats in Sarawak state election, two thirds of the seats are in rural areas. Rural folks are more concerned with livelihood, state development, rising costs of leaving, goods and services tax. The 1MDB and RM2.6 billion issues, to them, are too remote.”

In addition, he says there are 82 state seats in this election. Although Barisan Nasional has 22 risk areas to face, the Barisan Nasional is still capable of winning two-third majority. The weakness of Barisan Nasional lies with the internal feud between SUPP and UPP and clash between SPDP and TERAS. The DAP would be fighting for additional 10 state seats to contest. PKR would be contesting 10 state seats while PAS 1 seat.

He predicts polling day to fall on 7 May as any further delay would clash with Gawai festival.

He also doubts whether Sarawak Chief Minister Tan Sri Adenan’s 85% of popularity can be translated into votes?

He says Sarawak would remain in Malaysia but he does not understand why Adenan insists on listing 22 July, the Independence Day as public holiday. Sarawak is the first state in the world to have three separate independence days – 22 July, 31 August and 16 September.

PAN and PAS expected to lose. Rural seats are still Barisan Nasional stronghold

On the 13 seats contested by Parti Amanah Negara (PAN), Jeniri says whether PAN or PAS, they would not win any seat. This is a battle between Barisan Nasional vs DAP in urban areas and Barisan Nasional vs PKR in rural areas.

Take PKR for example, it should be able to win two seats with its worst performance. PAN does not have any election machinery in local area and is regarded as extremist by the Sarawakians and unable to blend into local culture.

He says rural areas are still stronghold of Barisan Nasional in future. Due to lower education level in rural area, the people still believe in promises made by Barisan Nasional such as the children would not be given text book loan for not voting Barisan Nasional. Other factors include opposition parties are unable to create a prominent leader.

He says for many years Sarawak is unable to solve the problems of power supply and water supply in rural areas. He hopes the Chief Minister Adenan would be able to overcome those in five years and remind the Barisan Nasional not to let the people wait for another 50 years. “Barisan Nasional and the opposition party share a common point – they are unable to honour the pledges.”

On opposition leaders banned from entering Sarawak, Jeniri says sometimes the Barisan Nasional has abused the ban imposed by immigration authorities. Hence he urges Barisan Nasional to provide a fair platform for political parties of both divide.

About eight leaders from DAP and PKR are banned from entering Sarawak. This includes Teresa Kok, Tony Pua, and Mohamad Sabu. Are they extremists? In many times this is just political consideration.

Associate Prof: Opposition may win 18 seats; Barisan Nasional can win between 64 and 72 seats

UKM Malaysia political science associate professor Dr Mohd Faisal Syam Abdol Hazis predicts that Barisan Nasional will be winning 64 and 72 seats in Sarawak state election this time. Opposition parties are able to win at least 10 seats with eight other potential seats to win.

“These 10 seats are Padungan, Pending, Batu Lintang, Krian, Repok, Muara Tuang, Bukit Assek, Pelawan, Kidurong, Pujut state seats. The other eight seats with potential to win are Batu Kawa, Kota Sentosa, Batu Kitang, Dudong, Piasau, Samalaju, Telang Usan and Bakalalan.”

He says after re-delineation exercise with an additional 11 state seats, DAP would be contesting in Batu Kitang, Samalaju and others. PKR would be contesting in Telang Usan while Barisan Nasional independent candidate may contest in Bukit Goram.

In speaking on the topic “Adenan, letting go by federal powers and alternative camp: Sarawak decides 2016”, he is of the view that the Sarawak people have overrated Adenan’s popularity. Despite Adenan’s popularity continues to increase, the popularity may not be translated into votes. Despite getting 85% of popularity, not 85% of votes would go to Barisan Nasional.

He believes Barisan Nasional would secure two-third majority and predicts that Adenan would face difficulties in winning 70 seats for Barisan Nasioanl.

He says fighting for federal powers to let go is a strategy hijacked by Adenan from the opposition. However, he is of the view that it would be insufficient just to let go powers but the letting go of powers and also accountable autonomy.

Barisan Nasional can’t ignore that its popular votes have declined by 16% (8.3% and 7.5%) since 2006 and 2011 state elections. Adenan should be paying attention on this.

Opposition’s disadvantage of unable to form a true pact

Mohd Faisal says the disadvantage of opposition in this state election is that it is unable to form a true alliance. Lacking a common Malay leader and some of the DAP elected representatives fail to deliver.

“Opposition parties may be able to avoid a three-corner fight in urban areas. However, it would be hard to avoid multi-corner fights in rural areas. They have to negotiate.”

Asked about PAN contesting in 13 state seats, he says, most of the seats are dominated by PBB. As a new party, PAN should be focusing on several state seats due to its limited strength and constraint.

Sarawak DAP may form a new party in five years to discard the image of a foreign party

Associate Prof Awang Azman from Universiti Malaya, in his topic on “Patriotism under political model of Adenan’s leadership” reveals that the DAP may be forming a new political party in Sarawak in three to five years to gain the trust of Sarawak voters.

“Sarawak people used to resist party outside of the state such as PKR and DAP. DAP feels the pressure. In order to discard its image as a foreign party, I believe the DAP would form a new party in Sarawak for people to accept it.”

He claims that DAP has planned to set up a new party prior to this state election but it does not manage to do so in time.