Mahathir and son not strong enough to make a comeback

Writer: Chen Hai De

Oriental Daily, Feb 17, 2016

The row over Prime Minister Najib’s RM2.6 billion political donation has settled for now. The next is the replacement of Mukhriz as the Kedah Menteri Besar. The swiftness in the change of Menteri Besar is dazzling.

It was reported that Mukhriz’s appointment as the Menteri Besar was a “product” of compromise between Tun Mahathir and Najib. They are now in a face-off. While Najib was embroiled in the 1MDB issue, Tun M used the opportunity to force him out.

And now the situation had made a 180-degree turn, Mukhriz bore the brunt and became a victim of the campaign to rout out Tun M’s forces. The incident indicated that even in his home state, Tun M’s support is weak as the change of Menteri Besar was done in lightning-speed.

Mukhriz revealed a week later that the Kedah Regency Council had actually informed him that he lost by 16 to 17 votes– a crucial single vote cost him his seat. Maybe he was trying to save face, or maybe it was a hint-sight. When the row broke out, the Kedah Regency Council declared that it would not interfere in politics and the removal of Menteri Besar would be decided by the state assembly.

However, Mukhriz resigned even before this. Some people said his heart was still with UMNO. In actual fact, he resigned voluntarily to avoid being voted out. Isn’t it? Since he has mentioned it, does he really have the confidence of securing the 16 votes?

Barisan had 21 votes, including the 15 votes held by the anti-Mukhriz faction in UMNO. Mukhriz only had confidence of securing four votes – himself and his supporters. MCA has two votes but they are fend-sitters. And thus, Mukhriz needed the collective support of the whole opposition to keep his seat.

With the crumbling of Pakatan Rakyat, the alliance has split into four parties in two rival camps. PAS has eight state assemblymen forming the majority opposition in Kedah. On the side of Pakatan Harapan, PKR has four seats, DAP two and Harapan one, making a total of seven.

If all in the opposition camp supported Mukhriz, he would be able to secure 15 votes, which together with four in his camp, he would have no problem in keeping his seat. The question is whether everyone in the opposition camp support him.

The anti-Mukhriz faction in UMNO, together with the two MCA votes, would have 17 votes to form a simple majority. Mukhriz would need 19 votes and he only had confidence of securing 16 votes – his own plus three other supporters, and 12 in the opposition camp (what about PKR and PAS?).

DAP earlier stated that they would not take side and thus, their two votes had been discounted. But even the single Harapan vote is dodgy. Nevertheless, it may not be that difficult to secure the two DAP votes and make the total at 18. In such a case, there is still hope for him to continue his fight against the anti-Mukhriz faction.

However, as things go, even the 16 votes in the hands of Mukhriz are shaky as PAS and PKR may not be reliable as PAS has an ambiguous relationship with UMNO. What is important is saving his dignity in order to make a comeback when opportunity arises.

Does Mukhriz still stand a chance? What’s Tun M’s next response? As the Chinese saying goes: when the mountain is denuded, are there still fire-woods to collect and burn?