UMNO’s No 2 in delicate situation

Chan Han Guang (translated name)
Nanyang Siang Pau, Sept 9, 2015

While the position of deputy prime minister is no more a guarantee, UMNO supreme council met for the first time after a series of incidents and its outcome would surely have rippling effects on the future political situation. But before we analyze the outcome of the meeting, we must first understand this: why Tan Sri Muhyiddin refuses to resign as UMNO Deputy President? Muhyiddin has steadfastly held on to his party position and his steadfastness has intriguing implications on UMNO leadership.

Some people think that Vice President Dato Seri Dr Zahid is now the DPM and if PM and UMNO President Dato Seri Najib succumbed to pressure and stepped down before the next general election, it can be taken for granted that Ahmad Zahid would take over. These people only see the succession in government office but fail to see succession in UMNO politics.

UMNO has been established for 69 years. Except for founder president Dato Onn Jaafar, all UMNO presidents from the late Tunku Abdul Rahman, late Tun Razak, late Tun Hussein Onn, Tun Dr Mahathir, Tun Abdullah to Najib had become the Prime Minister. More importantly, when they stepped down, they were succeeded by the DPM who was also UMNO Deputy President.

Many analysts believe that Najib would not be likely to lead UMNO for the next general election. If that is the case, the succession would be a severe test as the party is facing a situation quite unprecedented.

First, let us look at the post of the Prime Minister. Under the Constitution, the leader of the political party or coalition which controls the majority of seats in Dewan Rakyat will be appointed the Prime Minister. However, under UMNO’s Constitution, if the party president stepped down halfway, the deputy president will take over automatically as the acting president. That means Muhyiddin will take over UMNO and not Zahid.

And according to our political tradition, UMNO acting president will succeed as the prime minister. This is the reason why Dr Mahathir said Zahid may not be the prime minister when he touched on question of the next potential candidate.

In June this year, UMNO supreme council had decided to defer by another 18 months the party election which is originally scheduled for 2016. This means that the election would be held after the next general election. This also means that before the party election in 2018, Muhyiddin, as UMNO’s No 2, still stands a chance to take over the baton unless he chooses to resign or being sacked from the party.

In recent weeks, speculation about the sacking of Muhyiddin, Shafie Apdal and Mukhriz has been rife on social media. Despite denials by several UMNO leaders like Vice-President Hishamuddin, such rumors are still raging. Under such circumstances, one could imagine the supreme council meeting held for the first time after the removal of Muhyiddin and Shafie from the Cabinet, would be very sombre.

Nevertheless, UMNO Youth Chief Khairy said in his Twitter that he expected the meeting, which would be attended by all leaders, would be positive. He was 100 percent sure that no senior leaders would be sacked.

Khairy may be right about the meeting as his credibility is high. If that is the case, the No 2 seat occupied by Muhyiddin will still be an unknown factor in UMNO’s leadership lineup in the post-Najib era. However, nothing is absolute in politics. If the positive atmosphere is just a delusion, then the supreme council meeting may feel a cold wind blowing throughout the session.

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【政治评论】微妙的巫统老二